Before I launch into my preview of the Germany-Spain match, let’s look back at today’s game between Uruguay and the Netherlands. The game turned out to be one of the most exciting games of the tournament, with 5 goals being scored. Two of the tournament’s best performers (Wesley Sneijder and Diego Forlán) were again on display. Sneijder bagged his 5th goal and is tied with David Villa for the Golden Boot. The Dutch’s first goal was a great shot from distance by veteran left back, Giovanni Van Bronckhorst. The ball was a great strike into the top corner, Fernando Muslera could do little to keep it out. Uruguay equalized through a goal by Forlán just before the half. The Dutch pushed for a good portion of the second half and finally got a goal when Sneijder’s shot from the edge of the box took a funny bounce off of Maxi Pereira. There is a question as to whether the goal should have been allowed, as Robin Van Persie (who has been less than stellar this World Cup) was narrowly offside. Perhaps the referee saw him as being in a passive position (most definitely not) or perhaps he called him onside due to Maxi Pereira’s “playing” of the ball. Either way, the goal counted. THe Dutch scored again through a sublime build up and cross by Dirk Kuyt. Arjen Robben finished the cross from Kuyt to put the Oranje up 3-1. Uruguay pushed in the final 5 minutes with Maxi Pereira scoring a goal off a well-played free kick that was laid off to him at the top of the box. The win propelled the Dutch to their first World Cup final since 1978 and assured an all European final.
An interesting thing about the Dutch win is that it eliminated the last South American team from the 2010 World Cup. South American teams had been dominant up to the quarterfinals, with 4 out of the 5 entrants making it to the final 8. Uruguay was the only South American team to make the semifinals. Europe, on the other hand, has had a shaky Cup, until now. Three European teams made it to the final 8. All three advanced to the final 4 and we will have 2 European teams in the final. Which team will be the second European team in the 2010 World Cup final? Let’s break down the match.
This is a match of a team that classically overachieves versus a team that is trying to permanently shed its underachiever label. Spain went a long way to shedding that ignominious label by beating Germany in the Euro 2008 final. The win propelled Spain to the #1 spot in the FIFA rankings, but a series of less than stellar outings allowed Brazil to regain the top spot. Spain’s loss to the US at the 2009 Confederations Cup combined with an opening game loss to Switzerland at this World Cup made the Euro 2008 victory seem like a thing of the past. Spain has rebounded nicely to make it to their first ever semifinal at the World Cup. Germany, on the other hand, are in their 4th semifinal in a row and are seeking a shot at their 4th title.
Goalkeeper – Captain, and arguably best goalkeeper in the world, Iker Casillas is in net for Spain, while relative newcomer, Manuel Neuer will again backstop Germany. Initial reaction from most fans would be the this is a no contest victory for Spain; however, Casillas has seemed a bit distracted throughout the tournament. That said, a distracted Casillas is still better than most goalkeepers, and he rose to the occasion against Paraguay. His save of Óscar Cardozo’s PK was clutch! The save kept Spain in the game and allowed David Villa to score the game winner. Neuer has been playing very well and has only conceded 2 goals the entire tournament. He is still untested in truly big games (and this one is massive). Will he rise to the occasion? Advantage: Spain
Defense – Here too, many fans might see Spain has having a much better defense than Germany. Look past the glitzy names like Carles Puyol, Sergio Ramos and Gerard Piqué and this match up is much closer than it initially appears. Spain certainly has the name recognition, but Germany’s defense has been excellent throughout the tournament. While they are susceptible to the counter attack, as show by England, they bend but don’t break. Arne Friedrich and Per Mertesacker might not have the name recognition of the Spanish center back tandem, but they have played every bit as well. They worked tirelessly to keep Argentina’s potent offense off the score sheet, making Lionel Messi look a bit lost. Jerome Boateng and Philipp Lahm have also done well at the full back positions, both in defense and going forward in attack. There has been some speculation that Puyol may miss game due to injury, which would likely mean Carlos Marchena or Raúl Albiol would start in his place. Both replacements are solid, but Puyol marshals the back line very well, and his presence would be missed. Advantage: Spain (by a small margin if Puyol plays).
Midfield – Spain, once again, has the star power in midfield with the likes of Xavi, Andrés Iniesta, and Cesc Fábregas (who will likely start, if healthy, in the place of the slumping Fernando Torres). If Spain elects to sit Torres, they will employ a 4-5-1 formation, with Sergio Busquets and Xabi Alonso playing behind the aforementioned trio. Keep in mind that Fabregas appears to be nursing a leg injury, suffered during practice on Monday. The Spanish midfield typically has a lot of possession as they like to use short passes to cut open defenses. This, however, has allowed some teams to shut them down (see the US at the Confederations Cup, Switzerland and even Paraguay in defeat). Their reliance on short passing can make them one-dimensional in their attack. It wasn’t until the 83rd minute that Spain finally broke through against a tiring Paraguay (remember Paraguay had just played a game that went to PKs against Japan). Germany has shown that it is a master of counterattacking in this World Cup. Manager, Joachim Löw, has used his talent to the best of its abilities. Thomas Müller has been a revelation, but will miss the semifinal due to yellow card accumulation. Finding his replacement could be tough given how well he has been playing. Even without him, Germany are strong with emerging holding midfielder Sami Khedira, attacking starlet Mesut Özil, and veteran playmaker/free kick specialist Bastian Schweinsteiger. This match up shuld be fun to watch, as the Spanish try to break down the German back line and the Germans counterattack. The emergence of Özil, great play from Schweinsteiger and Khedira, and the potential injury to Fabregas make this an even match up. Advantage: Push
Forward – As with every other area of the pitch, the Spanish have more star power up front. David Villa is tied for the Golden Boot with 5 goals and Fernando Torres has been prolific for Liverpool since joining the EPL. Torres, unfortunately for Spain, has not been able to translate that form to the international stage. He has looked tired, lost, and just plain bad most of the tournament. This is likely to prompt Spain into a tactical switch, leaving Villa as the lone striker. Germany has Miroslav Klose, a man who knows how to score goals for his country, particularly in the World Cup. Klose (14 career goals at the World Cup) is 1 goal from tying Ronaldo for the most World Cup goals scored by a player in his career. He has been his usual, solid self all tournament. Lukas Podolski has been excellent setting up the attack and has found the back of the net twice himself. Germany has more depth than Spain, being able to bring Cacau and Mario Gomez off the bench. Both players are dangerous. Spain has Fernando Llorente and wingers Pedro and Jesús Navas. All are good players, but none have the finishing ability of Cacau or Gomez. Advantage: Germany
Germany is a classic example of a team being greater than the sum of its parts. They have several excellent players, but none are as flashy as their Spanish counterparts. While Spain, on paper, has a better grouping of players, Germany has a better team. For this reason, and Löw’s tactical superiority over Vicente Del Bosque, Germany will win this game. They have looked much better throughout the tournament than Spain, but I still want to see Spain win.