Champions League – Round of 16 Preview

 

The Round of 16 presents some intriguing matches. Bayern-Inter, Arsenal-Barça, and Lyon-Real Madrid should all provide drama. Interestingly, all are rematches (from some point in the competition) from last year. (source: UEFA.com)

On Friday, the Champions League Round of 16 draw was announced at the UEFA headquarters in Nyon, Switzerland, and there are some juicy match ups.  Who isn’t excited about a rematch of last year’s championship match (Bayern – Inter)?  Or rematches between Barcelona and Arsenal, and Lyon and Real Madrid.

All in all, I didn’t do a bad job of picking the teams that would make it to the round of 16.  I correctly predicted 14 of the 16 teams (though not always finishing in the right position).  The only real surprise was FC Copenhagen making it out of the group stage.  My other mistake was thinking that AC Milan was too dysfunctional to beat out Ajax in Group G.  The Dutch narrowly missed pipping the Italians, placing 1 point behind the Rossoneri.

Check out my predictions; how do they compare to yours?

Group A – 1) FC Internazionale Milan; 2) Tottenham Hotspur FC .  Actual: 1) Spurs; 2) Inter

Group B – 1) Olympique Lyonnais; 2) FC Schalke 04.   Actual: 1) Schalke; 2) Lyon

Group C – 1) Manchester United; 2) Valencia CF. Actual: 1) Manchester United; 2) Valencia

Group D – 1) Barcelona; 2) Panathinaikos.  Actual: 1) Barça; 2) Copenhagen

Group E – 1) FC Bayern Munich; 2) AS Roma. Actual: 1) Bayern; 2) Roma

Group F – 1) Chelsea FC; 2) Olympique de Marseille. Actual: 1) Chelsea; 2) Marseille

Group G – 1) Real Madrid CF; 2) AFC Ajax. Actual: 1) Real Madrid; 2) AC Milan

Group F – 1) Arsenal FC; 2) FC Shakhtar Donetsk.  Actual: 1) Shakhtar; 2) Arsenal

With the group stage predictions making me feel pretty cocky about my knack for prognostication here are my previews of the eight Round of 16 matches.  For more information on the teams, I suggest taking a look at my group stage previews, where I cover each team in depth.  For a list of the match dates and times go here.

Roma vs. Shakhtar – This match up ties with Valencia-Schalke for the match with the least cache.  While lacking in name recognition, this should be an interesting match up to watch.  In the group stage, Roma stumbled against FC Basel, dropping a 3-1 decision at the Stadio Olimpico, but was able to rebound with a stunning comeback against Bayern in Rome.  Roma is playing well now, having just defeated Milan at the San Siro and will surely look to upgrade their team in the January transfer window.

Shakhtar, the first Ukrainian team to make it out of the group stage, is running away with the Ukrainian Premier League, having dropped just 5 points all season.  In 19 games, the Shakhtar are 17-1-1.  They were also able to go 5-0-1 on their way to winning Group H over Arsenal. The most impressive stat is Shakhtar’s dominance at home.  This season, they have won every home game (in all competitions) and have given up just 3 goals in 13 games.

Prediction: Shakhtar – Roma certainly have the players and the ability to win, but I expect Shakhtar to advance due to their dominance in Donetsk.

AC Milan vs. Spurs – This pairing presents an interesting match up between the Serie A leaders and the Champions League debutantes. Milan made it to this point by narrowly escaping Group G, finishing 1 point ahead of Ajax.  While their form in the Champions League has been inconsistent, they sit atop the Serie A table after several down years (by their lofty standards). They boast an attack led by Zlatan Ibrahimović, the always mercurial Robinho and fellow Brazilian Alexandre Pato, and enjoy the largest goal differential in Serie A.

Spurs, making their first appearance in the Champions League, acquitted themselves nicely by winning Group A over Inter.  They narrowly lost to Inter (4-3) in Milan, so they will certainly be familiar with their surroundings when they travel to northern Italy on February 15.  Domestically, Spurs are contending for a Champions League sport again this season, but sit 4 points behind Chelsea for the last spot.  If Spurs want to advance past the round of 16, they will have to do better at home than their current record (4-4-1) .

Prediction: AC Milan – Spurs have already tangled with one Milanese team this season and come out on top; however, I expect AC Milan to advance.

Valencia vs. Schalke – The second match up that doesn’t exactly spark excitement from non-soccer fans, but this should be an interesting match on the field.  Valencia currently sit 4th in La Liga, 5 points adrift of Villareal.  Valencia finished 2nd in Group C, behind Manchester United; though they did score 15 goals in 6 games.  Los Che scored 10 of those goals in their two games against Bursaspor.  While they have played well in spurts during the season; they must find consistency.

Schalke, winners of Group B over Lyon, have been a bit like Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde.  They have played well in Europe, but have been mediocre in the Bundesliga.  Schalke posted a 4-1-1 record in Group A, only losing to Lyon in France; however, they sit 10th in the Bundesliga with a 6-4-7 record.  Which team will show up for the match in Valencia on February 15?

Prediction: Valencia, who despite their own inconsistencies, are playing better than Schalke.  I expect them to advance.

Inter vs. Bayern Munich – One of the most exiting match ups of the round of 16.  I know that I will be watching this match on my computer at work come February 23.  Inter, winners over Bayern last year, have struggled in Seria A this season.   The Nerazzurri are just 6-5-4 and have dropped games to the likes of Chievo Verona and lost the Milan derby.  With Rafa Benitez supposedly under fire, Inter need to find a measure of stability.  Clearly the team that won last season is missing José Mourinho.  Their form in the Champions League has also been less than stellar, finishing behind Spurs in Group A.  Recently, however, they did win the Club World Cup, so perhaps they are righting ship.

Bayern, a bit like Schalke, has been a team with two personalities.  Currently 14 points behind Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga, Bayern diced their way through Group E in the Champions League.  Bayern nearly lost a 4 goal lead against VfB Stuttgart before winning their last match, and have been inconsistent all season. Just as with their German brethren, which team will show up for their Round of 16 match?

Prediction: Bayern – If Rafa Benitez’s status is still up in the air when these two teams meet in Milan, I just don’t see how Inter will beat Bayern.  Even if Rafa is fired before that match and Inter figures things out, the Germans have played better all season and should win the day.

Lyon vs. Real Madrid – Another juicy match up, and another rematch from last year.  Last year, Lyon got the best of Real Madrid en route to the semifinals.  This season, Les Gones are fighting for their spot atop the Ligue 1 table.  Currently, 10 teams are within 5 points of the top spot, with Lyon one point behind league leading Lille.  In the Champions League, Lyon finished 2nd behind Schalke in Group B, a group they should have won.

Real Madrid continue to be one of the top teams in Europe.  With the Special One at the helm, Los Blancos are challenging Barcelona atop the La Liga table and easily won Group G, which looked, at the beginning of the campaign, like one of the most competitive groups in this years Champions League.  Real Madrid have lost just 1 game this year in all competitions (though it was a drubbing at the hands of arch rival Barcelona), and look to make it past the round of 16 for the first time since 2004.

Prediction: Real Madrid.  No repeat of last year here.  Real Madrid have played well, against everyone not named Barcelona, and should advance.

Arsenal vs. Barcelona – The third of the absolutely awesome match ups in the Round of 16.  Also a rematch from last year, where Barcelona defeated Arsenal in the quarterfinals.  Arsenal have enjoyed a good deal of success this season, battling for the top spot in the Premier League.  Currently in 2nd place, 2 points behind Manchester United, the Gunners are have been nearly as inconsistent as Inter and Bayern.  Domestically, The Gunners have loses to Newcastle and West Brom on their résumé, while they finished behind Shakhtar Donetsk in Group H.  Arsene Wenger and his charges are talented enough to win this much, but will be facing a much tougher opponent when they host Barcelona at the Emirates on February 16.

Barcelona has been its usual dominant self this season.  A loss to Hércules CF in the second round of La Liga competition is the only blemish on an otherwise sterling record.  Barça are 14-1-1 in La Liga and won Group D with a 4-2-0 record.  Lionel Messi has been in fine form all season and new addition David Villa has added even more scoring punch.

Prediction: Barça – As much as it pains me to pick against the Gunners, Barcelona have been a buzzsaw this season.  The Gunners have been too inconsistent to truly threaten Barça, though this should be fun to watch.

Marseille vs. Manchester United – This is a match up that pits the defending French champions against one of the preeminent clubs in the game.  Sir Alex Ferguson had to be happy with the draw, as Man U avoided both AC and Inter Milan.  Man U, though, have been in fine form all season, having yet to lose a game in the EPL or the Champions League.  That said, they have 9 draws in 22 games.  The Red Devils already have a win over Arsenal to their credit this term and will face Spurs before their February 23 date with Marseille.

Marseille are one of the teams fighting for the top spot in Ligue 1 this season, sitting 2 points behind Lyon and 3 behind Lille.  Marseille haven’t lost a game in Ligue 1 since a 2-1 defeat by PSG in early November.  Marseille have already improved on last year’s showing in the Champions League showing by making it to the round of 16, though the French side will certainly want more.  They ended the group stage on a high note, winning 4 in a row and beating Chelsea in the final group game.

Prediction: Man U – Though Marseille have been in fine form lately, Man U has been clicking on all cylinders.  I expect a tight match when the two play in France, but Man U will ultimately advance.

FC Copenhagen vs. Chelsea – This has to be the most unlikely match up in the Round of 16.  Who, other than a few Danes, would have predicted Copenhagen making it out of the Group Stage.  Sure Group D was Barcelona and three “outsiders” but both Rubin Kazan and Panathanikos play in stronger leagues than the Danes.  Copenhagen are the first Danish side to make it this far in the Champions League and haven’t lost a Champions League game at home.  The Lions drew with Barcelona in the Danish capital and were able to secure an away win in Athens to advance.  In addition to their impressive run in Europe, the Lions have run away with the Danish SAS-Ligaen.  Copenhagen currently sit 19 points clear of second place Odense BK, and have yet to drop a match.

Chelsea are another team with consistency issues.  After jumping out to an early lead in the EPL, Chelsea haven’t won a league game since November 10.  Didier Drogba’s absence due to malaria is a huge part of Chelsea’s poor form, however the team has too many stars to use that as an excuse.  Chelsea will feel confident that they can improve on last year’s Round of 16 exit, as Copenhagen lack big game experience.  Carlo Ancelotti will need to inspire the troops, or Chelsea could find themselves in a hole, as Copenhagen hosts the first game in this match up.

Prediction: Chelsea – While I would love to see the plucky Danish side advance, it just isn’t going to happen.  Chelsea, especially with Drogba back, are just too good.

What do you think of my predictions?  Agree?  Disagree?  Would you be excited to see a final 8 consisting of: Chelsea, Man U, Barcelona, Real Madrid, Shakhtar, Bayern, Valencia and AC Milan?  Let me know what you think.

Champions League Preview: Group D

Today’s post marks the mid-point of our Champions League previews.  If you haven’t already (and if you have, take another look), check out the previews for Group A, Group B, and Group C.

Group D consists of champions from four leagues, though only FC Barcelona has the name recognition outside of hardcore soccer fans.  Joining Barça are: F.C Copenhagen, Panathinaikos and Rubin Kazan.

The addition of David Villa makes Barcelona even more dangerous than they have been in past seasons.

FC Barcelona –  Barça, three-time Champions League winners and two-time defending La Liga champions, are one of the most well-known teams in the world.  With fans on every continent, Barça is also one of the wealthiest clubs in the world.  This has allowed Barça to put together an impressive collection of talent, including 8 members of the World Cup winning Spanish side.  Barça last won the Champions League in 2008-2009 and are looking to make it back to the finals, after losing last year to eventual champs Inter.

While Barça hasn’t been overly active in the transfer market, buying just 3 players, those players will have a huge impact on both the La Liga and Champions League seasons.  Barça was able to land prolific striker David Villa from fellow Champions League competitors Valencia, defensive midfielder Javier Mascherano from Liverpool, and defender Adriano from Sevilla.  The addition of Villa and the emergence of Pedro made Thierry Henry surplus to requirements.  Villa’s signing also allowed Barça to send misfit,  Zlatan Ibrahimović, to AC Milan on loan.  Others leaving the Catalan side include: Yaya Touré (Manchester City); Ukrainian defender Dmytro Chygrynskiy, and Rafa Márquez (New York Red Bulls).  Barça opened La Liga play with a 3-0 victory over Racing Santander in Santander with Lionel Messi,  Andrés Iniesta, and Villa scoring goals.

Interesting tidbit: this season marks the 2nd straight year they have been drawn into the same group with Russian champions, Rubin Kazan. Rubin upset Barça 2-1 at the Camp Nou and drew 0-0 in Kazan.  No doubt, Barça will not take Rubin lightly this year and will be looking for revenge.

Barcelona are the clear favorites in this group, just as Manchester United and Inter Milan were in their groups.  It would be a shock of epic proportions if Barça finished in any other position than 1st.

Can Copenhagen knock off Barcelona? If so, they will replicate their 2006 upset of Manchester United.

F.C. Copenhagen – Copenhagen are currently the class of the Danish league, having won 4 of the last 5 Superliga titles, including the last two. Of the teams in Group D, they were the only team to play in the qualifying rounds (entering in 3rd qualifying round).  Along the way, the Lions beat Belorussian champions FC BATE Borisov and Norwegian champions Rosenborg; not exactly a difficult path out of qualifying.

This season marks their first appearance in the group stage since the 2006-2007 season. That year they finished last in their group but did manage 2-1-3 record, which included a 1-0 victory over Manchester United in Copenhagen.  Last season, the Lions lost to surprise group stage entrant APOEL in the play-off round.

The Copenhagen squad is made up of mostly Scandinavian players, with several players representing the Swedish and Danish national teams.  During the transfer window, Copenhagen brought in Costa Rican international Christian Bolaños, and Brazilian midfielder Claudemir.  Copenhagen doesn’t have any player that would qualify as an international start, but like the Danish national team, they win with good team tactics and chemistry.

Copenhagen, while certainly not a pushover (especially at home), will likely be happy if they qualify for the Europa League.  Competing with Panathinaikos and Rubin Kazan for the 2nd spot might be asking too much of the plucky Danish side.

Panathinaikos F.C. – The Superleague Greece champions, Panathinaikos benefit from the Greek league gaining an automatic group stage qualifying spot at the expense of the Belgian league.  Last season, Panathinaikos entered in the 3rd qualifying round, ultimately bowing out in the play off round, losing to Atlético Madrid. Panathinaikos’ league win broke a string of 6 consecutive titles by rivals Olympiacos. Thus far, Panathinaikos have played a single game this season, drawing with Skoda Xanthi 1-1.  The next game they play will be against Barcelona at the Camp Nou.

The addition of Sidney Govou will give Panathinaikos a more potent offense. And the most French forwards in the Greek League.

Panathinaikos has been active in the transfer market over the past few seasons, showing a particular interest in French internationals (obviously, they hope to avoid the drama of the French national team). Prior to the 2009-2010 season, Djibril Cissé joined the club, and Jean-Alain Boumsong and Sidney Govou followed this summer. Both Govou and Boumsong moved from, fellow Champions League entrants, Lyon.  The addition of Boumsong and Govou, as well as Luis García, make Panathinaikos a better team than the one that qualified for the Champions League.  The only major subtraction was Greek international forward Dimitris Salpigidis, who returned to former club PAOK.

Panathinaikos certainly have the talent to make a run in the Champions League.  In addition to their French contingent, Gilberto Silva and several Greek internationals occupy the roster.  Second place in this group isn’t out of the question, and will likely be a battle between the Greeks and Rubin Kazan.

FC Rubin Kazan – The two-time defending Russian Premier League champions are making their 2nd appearance in the group stage.  As mentioned above, this will be the 2nd straight year Rubin Kazan will be in the same group  as Barcelona.  Last season, they finished 3rd in their group, qualifying for the Europa League where they lost to Wolfsburg in the Round of 16.  This season, Rubin currently sit 2nd, 6 points behind Zenit St Petersburg after 19 games.

Rubin signed Nigerian striker Obafemi Martins during the transfer window. His goal scoring should help the Russians in the Champions League.

Rubin has been very active in the summer transfer window, with a dozen players both coming and going.  The biggest signing of the summer was Obafemi Martins, wh moved from Wolfsburg.  The Nigerian international should give Rubin more fire power up top and help replace the departed Aleksandr Bukharov (now with Zenit). Rubin have benefited from the new wealth that has poured into the Russian Premier League over the past few seasons.  Teams that had previously consisted of primarily Russian and for Soviet players are now true multinational teams. Rubin have players from countries all across the globe, and have pieced together a team that can compete internationally.

With Rubin’s 4 points from 2 games against Barcelona last year, this team cannot be taken lightly.  The competitiveness of the Russian league has skyrocketed over the last several seasons.  Rubin have the tools to finish 2nd in the group.

Prediction: Barcelona take this group with little effort.  They have too much talent and will overwhelm the rest of the group.  With the talent brought in over the summer, Panathinaikos finish second.  Though, it wouldn’t surprise me if Rubin nabbed that spot instead.

If you agree/disagree with any of my thoughts or predictions, leave a comment.  The Group E (Bayern Munich, Roma, FC Basel and CFR Cluj) preview will come after the Labor Day holiday.

Check out previews for:
Group A
Group B
Group C
Group E
Group F